Armchair politics


#1822


#1823

Stock answer then: somebody else’s fault. Tiresome.

You know as well as anyone that local elections mean jack.


#1824

This is also worth looking at, as well as the corresponding study data:

https://t.co/pgGC1BbviF

I don’t know if all the left wing journalists are unemployed or sat at home doing these surveys, but it certainly looks odd that there’s an oft-quoted perceived right-wing bias in the press. Unless they are all working under the yoke of their right wing editors and owners, in which case they’re just stupid.


#1825

The polls have been spectacularly inaccurate over the last few years, (apart from the exit polls) I would put no credence on them whatsoever.


#1826

So you think Labour are substantially ahead?


#1827

What makes you think I think that? I don’t think I said or implied that.
I just don’t take any notice of polls or opinions or forcasts based on polls.
I am surprised people pay good money to commission them.


#1828

I put a question mark on it, as I was asking you to clarify one way or the other.

Other than some recent fuckups they are generally decent indicators, especially when taken as a meta group.


#1829

Opinion polls are even less indicative. What’s obvious is that many who are against Brexit are furious that Labour aren’t directly opposing it right now. That’s the source of their frustration and leads to the assertions of ineffectual opposition. I don’t think Brexit will actually happen. But I expect that it will be arrested by some democratic means which is the only way it can be legitimately stopped. There’s a process which will need to be moved through before that happens. Negotiations will have to come to a halt. Then a public realisation of the seriousness of the consequences where enough supporters of both parties have a change of heart.


#1830

I don’t think they are, they have proved to be spectacularly wrong, the last two elections were miles off the pace, as was the brexit predictions.


#1831

You are Cathy Newman & I claim my £5.


#1832

Like I said, you can’t just self-select the polls you want and conclude that polling is worthless. I think the pollsters acknowledge they cocked up in those examples and they have tried to address it.


#1833

Does anyone know of an English Brexit voter who will now vote Labour?

i don’t.

That, in a nutshell, is why Labour are fucked and that’s before we get onto the biggy of how many Brexit voters will change from either Lib or Tory to Lab.


#1834

Dennis Skinner? There are people who still share his views & those of the late Tony Benn re Europe ie they simply regard its influence as undemocratic.


#1835

And there is no evidence that they have. The only comment I saw from a polling company about their lamentable performance was that people lied to them. Not sure how they are going to improve on that.
The poll is wrong so blame the data.
Until they start getting it right again their polls are worthless.
We won’t know until the next general election if they have learned anything from the previous cock ups.

I am not being selective, I am going on the last three big polls, all of which were wrong. the only polls that matter are the ones that predict the elections, May believed the last one was going to give her a huge majority and was blown out the water, Cameron thought he was a dead duck and got a majority.

Perhaps you can give some examples of polls that have been right in the last few years? Polls that have predicted major political elections? Why should I believe them?


#1836

LoL, I should have added, normal common or garden voting types. The left have always had a dislike of the EU, however most of the Lab Brexit voters wouldn’t fit into that category. I can fully understand why Corbyn is so shit scared of losing votes, particularly in the Northern marginals, due to Brexit. He walks a fine line on keeping his London support and not losing his Northern votes.


#1837

The only polls I can think of are the exit polls, but by then of course it’s too late.


#1838

#1839

Liam Fox on today this morning. What a knob. Threatens Mrs May (that is fine by me). Uses the ‘thwarting the will of the people’ line and threatens the HoL over Parliament potentially being given a bit more choice over Brexit. Forgot about ‘Parliament being sovereign’ though.

This sums it up nicely:


#1840

This is a bit of an own-goal if the story is true.


#1841

At the local elections I always vote for the person not the party. If someone lives in the local area and is passionate about sticking up for our patch, that’s what counts for me.

Not interested in some career politician who doesn’t know the area.