What, actually, did you expect, Mr brexitard? Duh.
I was just going by what Laura said in her Tweet. She said that the -5% (as an example) was 5% less growth over 15 years. I read that as, again a simplistic example, 10% growth in total over 15 years , the -5% then giving a total of 9.5% growth. Didn’t seem end of the world stuff to me.
Again, I think this is very simple.
We know a few things for certain. We will not be in the main trading bloc of Europe. We will therefore have to negotiate a trade deal between the UK and the EU (not between the UK and Germany as Boris said). This will take time. We don’t know how much time but it won’t be done by when we leave - and judging by previous trade deals it could be years. Therefore we will take a financial hit. The amount almost doesn’t matter, we will be worse of as a nation.
We will also have to sort out deals with other countries - again this will take time. We can’t do it now as we are still in the EU so it cannot start until we leave. It’s therefore likely that we will be trying to negotiate multiple deals at the same time. Are the ministers and civil servants prepared for this? I hope so but I doubt it.
The models could be accurate or not. What is certain is is that it will be difficult. And, as always the worse off will suffer the most.
No. There were no experienced trade negotiators on the books until very recently. The recruiting efforts are a bit of a shambles. Apparently, DExEU is not a happy camp so even retaining their core staff is an issue.
You are Jacob R-M and I claim my rapidly devaluing £5
This is quite an instructive little film.
The difference between the Single Market & a Free Trade deal.
Sadly it wasn’t on the side of any bus that I recall.
Here we are then, some weapons grade trolling:
Amazingly enough this is not a fake, but it is beginners-level effort compared to Barnier’s trolling of Davis. The EU have just published a list of warning documents about barriers to trade post-Brexit. It is mostly dealing with Financial Services and is here. It is fairly dull but it is effectively saying to the Government that there is no cake. Expect meltdowns, Davis has already done his nut.
It would be funny if it wasn’t so fucking tragic. Oh, and the Japanese trade delegation visiting No 10 with their ambassador have suggested that the car makers will all do one without guaranteed free access to Europe, something promised to them by Mrs T. all those years ago, and others since.
I read the OBR evaluation report, where they look back at their forecasts and evaluate them; it’s amazing how much they change over a few months, and how wrong that have been at times. Sometimes they are quite close to being right, but that’s because they made two whoppers that cancelled out.
It’s hard to forecast when they’re is no major event - obviously everyone missed the financial crisis, but even steady state is hard to get right. When you factor in major changes, such as Brexit, it’s incredibly difficult to expect to get even close. I agree with your error bars point, but I’m not sure you could even know what the uncertainty is, it’s so complicated.
I think that it would be more useful to take some extracts from the models - for example, look at what would happen to certain major industries under a hard Brexit. What will happen when all the Japanese car companies shut down? How many jobs will be lost, and what will be the knock on effect? That would be much more tangible than a GDP figure.
I’m amazed the models get any sensible predictions at all given the extremely odd policy run by the Government since 2010. The idea that you would have the loosest possible monetary policy (which has immediate impact on the economy) coupled with a strongly contractionary fiscal policy (which has very lagged impact on the economy that is difficult to forsee) just makes no sense. At best you can allow the fact that they avoided a deflation, but other than that…
I don’t think that they care about models or indeed economics, it’s just dogma. They just want the smallest possible state, and they are all rich enough that an economic downturn doesn’t really affect them.
^ this and then some
The front cover of the current issue of Private Eye which I spotted this evening. Funny LOL
He really is a fuck knuckle.
You might approve of this:
Looking forward to the 2nd referendum
Because, let’s face it, the only thing which would stop them otherwise would be our new rules. It’s not as if a) the worthlessness of our currency or b) our track record of voting for a campaign which vilified them are going to put them off, is it.