I wonder if BoJo is really trying as hard as possible to get sacked before the whole shooting match (possible poor choice of phrase there ) blows up in their faces. I note all this comes in the wake of a cross party ammendment to the upcoming legislation guaranteeing no hard border, another vote the Govt is likely to lose if they oppose it.
Thatâs only madness if the GFA itself was a guarantor of an open border, no? As far as I am aware, the GFA did not guarantee an open border. It looks like the EU are insisting on a hard border, and the UK will try and make it as painless as possible.
What else are people expecting here?
In the madness that is Brexit, the Irish border is a manageable issue of fairly minor proportions. Politically it may well be a nightmare, but as a manageable technical issue, nothing special.
Regardless of the GFA relevancy to the border, which I donât profess to be an expert in, it is, to my mind, totally impossible for there not to be a hard border to a country which is outside the EU, SM and CU. How can the EU member states control the import og non EU origin goods if the border is open?
Weâve been waiting since Brexit for the government / brexit whackjobs to come up with a suitable suggestion that differs from what the Commnission agreed with HMG in December as the fall back position.
I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received, and that consequently this country is at war with Germany. Or summats
People have said that in the past Bob. Theyâve quite often been wrong.
I suspect that in the end the Irish government will simply put up with a degree of smuggling into the EU and that the British government will put up with a degree of illegal EU immigration to the UK just to keep the peace. Neither government will man border posts and we will both pretend that technology is doing the job.
Two things
(i) There is a load of cross boarder smuggling due to differences in VAT and taxes. I believe that the different tax regimes makes booze cheaper in the North and fags cheaper in the South. There are also petrol price differences. Nobody gives a fuck. The issue is where intermediate goods need to cross the boarder to become final goods prior to either (i) being sold (ii) crossing the border again or (iii) being exported out of Ireland. A hard border will kill this and hence be a disaster for NI and a problem for Ireland. Most of Ulsterâs exports are shipped out of Dublin, which will be fairly annoying.
(ii) The Irish Govt would prefer a border down the Irish Sea from an economic point of view as the business with the mainland is much more important than that with NI. There prospect of an upsurge in violence is what is the real concern. It has not totally calm up there t say the least. The latest stats are grim:
During 2016/17 there were 5 security related deaths, two more than occurred during previous year (2015/16). The number of shooting incidents increased from 36 to 61, however the number of bombing incidents nearly halved compared with 2015/16 (52 to 29). The number of casualties resulting from paramilitary style assaults increased slightly compared to 2015/16 (58 to 66), while the number of casualties resulting from paramilitary style shootings doubled from 14 to 28. Compared with the previous year, the quantity of explosives seized by the PSNI increased while the number of firearms and rounds of
ammunition seized decreased.
If you do look at that link, the figures in Annex 1 would be a good place to start if you want to understand why most people I know want the GFA maintained. The cessation of hostilities has been very good for peopleâs living standards which have yet to recover from 2008/9. The impact of the crisis was very severe in Ireland and NI in particular.
My point was, and is, that itâs the EUâs border as well as Irelandâs and - whether or not I agree with you on the shared political intention to look the other way - I think thereâs no chance whatsoever of âlook over there, Paddyâ being codified into legal treaties. Could be wrong though, and often am.
PS: Come on - we both know youâre sipping whatever was on offer at Aldi*
(*for the removal of any doubt, this is meant in jest and not as a precursor to WWIII)
Oh, I absolutely agree about that. I was just speculating about what might happen in practice (in fact Olan says it is happening already and both sides are turning a blind eye).
And I really am on the Sainsburyâs stuff Iâm afraid ⊠our local Aldi never seems to have the same stuff twice !
The word on the radio this morning was that Irish businesses will be screwed economically wherever the border ends up being because the vast majority of their exports pass through Britain even if theyâre just on their way to somewhere else. They really donât fancy the extra admin burden, although surely it canât beyond the wit of man to get technology to work with sealed containers on ferries can it ?
In fairness it is not really smuggling per se. There was a lady in Derry interviewed on R4 this morning. A lot of her staff live in Donegal. I bet they by the stuff that is cheaper in NI there and the rest in the ROI. There is no delay crossing the border, it is like going from England to Wales in many places. Twenty-five years ago it was a nightmare, huge queues to the crossing, armed police and soldiers being muppets because they were fed up being shot at, GardaĂ being cunts because they could and a DMZ around the border in terms of industry and commerce. All that is gone and good riddance too.