Brexit - Creating a Cuntocracy


#2307

No10 are in sweeping up mode, see here:

I wonder if BoJo is really trying as hard as possible to get sacked before the whole shooting match (possible poor choice of phrase there :confounded:) blows up in their faces. I note all this comes in the wake of a cross party ammendment to the upcoming legislation guaranteeing no hard border, another vote the Govt is likely to lose if they oppose it.


#2308

A customs union won’t help – there is no such thing as a ‘soft’ Brexit


#2309

#2310

That’s only madness if the GFA itself was a guarantor of an open border, no? As far as I am aware, the GFA did not guarantee an open border. It looks like the EU are insisting on a hard border, and the UK will try and make it as painless as possible.

What else are people expecting here?

In the madness that is Brexit, the Irish border is a manageable issue of fairly minor proportions. Politically it may well be a nightmare, but as a manageable technical issue, nothing special.


#2311

More of a technical challenge once lumps of Semtex start being attached to it.


#2312

Regardless of the GFA relevancy to the border, which I don’t profess to be an expert in, it is, to my mind, totally impossible for there not to be a hard border to a country which is outside the EU, SM and CU. How can the EU member states control the import og non EU origin goods if the border is open?

We’ve been waiting since Brexit for the government / brexit whackjobs to come up with a suitable suggestion that differs from what the Commnission agreed with HMG in December as the fall back position.

I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received, and that consequently this country is at war with Germany. Or summats

But don’t just take my word for it:


#2313

People have said that in the past Bob. They’ve quite often been wrong.

I suspect that in the end the Irish government will simply put up with a degree of smuggling into the EU and that the British government will put up with a degree of illegal EU immigration to the UK just to keep the peace. Neither government will man border posts and we will both pretend that technology is doing the job.

VB


#2314

Derry is the new Calais shocker :stuck_out_tongue:


#2315

This most likely.


#2316

For Ireland read EU Member States. Which is bonkers. Could I please have one of whatever youve been drinking ?


#2317

I’ve been looking at a few of the crossing points into the EU this morning and it appears that there’s infrastructure ready to go in some places.


#2318

Two things
(i) There is a load of cross boarder smuggling due to differences in VAT and taxes. I believe that the different tax regimes makes booze cheaper in the North and fags cheaper in the South. There are also petrol price differences. Nobody gives a fuck. The issue is where intermediate goods need to cross the boarder to become final goods prior to either (i) being sold (ii) crossing the border again or (iii) being exported out of Ireland. A hard border will kill this and hence be a disaster for NI and a problem for Ireland. Most of Ulster’s exports are shipped out of Dublin, which will be fairly annoying.

(ii) The Irish Govt would prefer a border down the Irish Sea from an economic point of view as the business with the mainland is much more important than that with NI. There prospect of an upsurge in violence is what is the real concern. It has not totally calm up there t say the least. The latest stats are grim:

During 2016/17 there were 5 security related deaths, two more than occurred during previous year (2015/16). The number of shooting incidents increased from 36 to 61, however the number of bombing incidents nearly halved compared with 2015/16 (52 to 29). The number of casualties resulting from paramilitary style assaults increased slightly compared to 2015/16 (58 to 66), while the number of casualties resulting from paramilitary style shootings doubled from 14 to 28. Compared with the previous year, the quantity of explosives seized by the PSNI increased while the number of firearms and rounds of
ammunition seized decreased.

Source here

If you do look at that link, the figures in Annex 1 would be a good place to start if you want to understand why most people I know want the GFA maintained. The cessation of hostilities has been very good for people’s living standards which have yet to recover from 2008/9. The impact of the crisis was very severe in Ireland and NI in particular.


#2319

Yes, of course. I’ve been drinking this

I sip it while surfing the internet where I can find out about smuggling into the EU. You may be surprised to learn that it is a thing https://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/interview/olaf-official-tobacco-smuggling-major-source-for-organised-crime/. They try and stop it by inspecting goods at the hard borders into the EU. Apparently there won’t be a hard border with Ireland. There is a long tradition of smuggling across the Irish border http://www.irishnews.com/business/2017/01/17/news/the-economics-of-cross-border-smuggling-explained-in-a-physics-class--887606/. If you think it won’t start again then maybe you need to wake up and smell the coffee :wink: ?

VB


#2320

I’m a wee bit aware of smuggling, but thanks.

My point was, and is, that it’s the EU’s border as well as Ireland’s and - whether or not I agree with you on the shared political intention to look the other way - I think there’s no chance whatsoever of ‘look over there, Paddy’ being codified into legal treaties. Could be wrong though, and often am.

PS: Come on - we both know you’re sipping whatever was on offer at Aldi*

(*for the removal of any doubt, this is meant in jest and not as a precursor to WWIII)


#2321

Oh, I absolutely agree about that. I was just speculating about what might happen in practice (in fact Olan says it is happening already and both sides are turning a blind eye).

And I really am on the Sainsbury’s stuff I’m afraid … our local Aldi never seems to have the same stuff twice !

The word on the radio this morning was that Irish businesses will be screwed economically wherever the border ends up being because the vast majority of their exports pass through Britain even if they’re just on their way to somewhere else. They really don’t fancy the extra admin burden, although surely it can’t beyond the wit of man to get technology to work with sealed containers on ferries can it ?

VB


#2322

In fairness it is not really smuggling per se. There was a lady in Derry interviewed on R4 this morning. A lot of her staff live in Donegal. I bet they by the stuff that is cheaper in NI there and the rest in the ROI. There is no delay crossing the border, it is like going from England to Wales in many places. Twenty-five years ago it was a nightmare, huge queues to the crossing, armed police and soldiers being muppets because they were fed up being shot at, Gardaí being cunts because they could and a DMZ around the border in terms of industry and commerce. All that is gone and good riddance too.


#2323

That’s perfectly legit now though, as VAT paid anywhere in the EU is OK. That won’t be the case after Brexit.


#2324

Yep, but it is not like to old days when smuggling lorry loads of fags, booze and fuel was very highly profitable.


#2325

An article replete with utter bollocks. Might as well ask the DUP to take out season tickets at Celtic.


#2326

Did you see the note from Varadkar? Basically said the same thing.