For me a huge factor is that the EU must protect the EU. It is totally against its long term interests to offer us a great deal, even though it will be better for them in the short term, as that would mean that other countries would look to leave.
I don’t think that they will actually penalise us, but they won’t be generous. At all.
A fundamental negotiating tenet for the EU will be - why would you make it more attractive to leave than to stay?
Otherwise there would be a stampede for the exit and no point to the club.
I particularly enjoy the way that Brexiters are expecting the EU to be mature and responsible, acting with the best interests of their industries and economies at heart.
They, on the other hand, continue to ignore the fact that the CBI and the TUC are united in opposition to Brexit, and take positions which are irresponsible and petulant.
Ah, the old “we hold all the cards / they’re bullying us” dichotomy
OTOH the EU are adopting a negotiating strategy, one where Financial Services are their prize. The EU then play this so that a good number of people over here fall for the narrative that the EU are somehow not harmed by a bad trade deal. I have yet to see an EU technocrat I trust, they make them in the same mould as Gove or Davidson.
Maybe. But the reality is that a FTA is about goods. Services, especially financial services are almost uniformly excluded from all FTAs. In the SM services come with the EU regulation and freedom of movement. Leaving aside regulation, how can you provide services without freedom of movement?
My limited experience of senior EU scientists was that once the sums of money got significant (more than, say, €10-20M) they started to take ‘working the system’ very seriously indeed. People on the projects I was involved with spent a lot of time a) in their capital cities talking to their own government people and b) in Brussels schmoozing the EU. This was in very sharp contrast to the practice in the UK which seemed to involve preparing and polishing paper cases within the scientific community and then expecting to convince the funding people to hand over the dosh in a couple of 2 hour meetings, usually on wet Wednesday afternoons. If they were lucky the paper case would match what the funders wanted to fund. But if it didn’t then that was felt to be because the funders were ‘out of touch’ with what the scientists knew to be right. Never mind that we hadn’t bothered to ask them what their plans were or even to prepare them carefully and thoroughly for our proposals.
It was a real education to watch the Europeans at work. Having had years of practice with some of their senior people doing little else they had got bloody good at it.
VB
Including us, there are 28 member states of the EU (29 if one assumes certain Brexiteers are from another Galaxy.) plus all the wee nationalities, like the Scots, English, Basques, Catalans, Welsh, Cockneys etc etc.)
And yet they’re all somehow cut from the same cloth? Are you completely sure about that, Bob?
(And quite what Jim Davidson has to do with it, I have no idea)
You’ll find Goves in the elite of every (democratic or otherwise ) country.
And as for the EU making a play for financial services: they’re not leaving the SM for services - we are. They’re not utterly unprepared, incoherent and indecisive: we are.
What do you suppose they should otherwise do?
War with Russia should take our minds off of Brexit.
Should have voted Stronzetto T-shirts coming soon
I’am going to the bunker at Lopwell
That story I alluded to, but could quite recall full details. http://metro.co.uk/2018/03/11/second-brexit-referendum-needed-leave-eu-campaigners-say-7378385/amp/?ito=desktop.article.share.top.twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Humphrey would be chuffed
Take back control, create more jobs for the Brits.
Promise made, promise kept.
QED.
Good read here: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/take-it-from-a-former-british-eu-negotiator-may-will-regret-burning-trust-in-these-negotiations
He’s well worth following on twitter, for thsoe who do do twitter and don’t (yet) do him
What a thread!
CA make Dealer Scum look saintly
I see that in order to get an agreement on the transition period, we have simply conceded everything. All our red lines have gone green.
It makes me realise why ministers have chauffeurs. Just imagine, they’re driving their huge cars, mowing down everything in their way, shouting out “oh no, I had a green light, all the lights are green” through a smarmy grin.
Still, the whole clusterfuck is delayed by 21 months and it’s obviously never going to happen.
The further along we get I’m more inclined to agree that it’ll not fully go through. Some sort of fudge will be put in place so we’re still in.
Fuck the will of the people, gubmints ignore it all the time.