This a chart of the inflation report forecasts for CPI inflation from the BoE today. Suffice to say that there is some interesting discussion about this chart. the sceptical view would suggest that the forecast trajectory is, at best, optmistic. I would be very keen to see the model that produced these 
Hmmm, choose the assumptions which give you the result you wantâŚ
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Buy bitcoin.
To be fair, the bank and government do try to implement policies that make inflation about 2%, so forecasting inflation at 2% isnât unreasonable, just self fulfilling!
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The company my brother works for makes bathrooms for all the big suppliers, they import all the raw materials from europe which are now costing them an extra ÂŁ2 million per year since the brextard vote. Itâs not a big firm and margins are getting hammered at the moment, luckily itâs an old family run business and they have no intentions of laying people off and have already said they are just going to take a hit on the profit but I could a see a shareholder company making people redundant to reduce overheads.
Iâm doing a big Avaya project at the moment and all their pricing is in dollars, since the initial quote and brexit the cost has gone up by ÂŁ300,000 because of the drop in the ÂŁ
There is fuck all upside to brexit and I can only see it getting worse so I donât think anything is OK.
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I couldnât be an economist. Seems to me itâs mostly about trying to predict the outcome of the interface between the collective insanity of the masses and the big lie that is the concept of money.
A bit like watching the lottery balls bouncing around in the machine, only with nicer graphs.
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Do any economists really get it right, nobody has ever predicted a crash but only told us why it happened after the fact.
fixed for the win.
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Donât be fucking silly. If I could predict a crash there is no way I would tell anyone. I would simply take on the appropriate leveraged position and coin it in. 
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I do think it will be interesting to see what policies might be required to keep inflation at 2%. Interest rates could go quite high, for example?
The real interest rate is currently quite negative which is holding the economy up. To have the usual 2-3% real interest rates would require nominal rates at 5%+ or ten times their current level.
A big recession is another way to deal with inflation. There is nothing left in the monetary policy pot and fiscal policy is a bust for dealing with inflation. The failure to invest heavily when interest rates were 0.25% may bite hard. To put it another way, we may be about to pay the bill for austerity.
With child poverty rates the highest since records began, letâs increase child poverty. Nice.
From the FT tonight:
What matters more is the outlook for further rises. The MPC incorporates market expectations of two more increases in the next few years, and governor Mark Carney hinted that more may be needed.
That may prove unwise; and it is even more unwise for the MPC to box itself in once again by giving strong guidance of a tightening cycle. Here is a plausible scenario: the hash the government is making of the Brexit negotiations leads to an âa-haâ moment among businesses and households, which abruptly curtail investment and long-term spending decisions. That would hit demand before it hit supply, and call either a halt to tightening or even a return to more stimulus.
Either way, weâre in the shit, basically.
You sound like you arenât fully behind the governmentâs Brexit approach. Traitor.
Traitor ? Nay, enemy of the people ! If* it all goes wrong itâll be his fault.
VB
*OK, when.
Oh yes they did, and they raked it in. Not everyone came out of the last crash worse than they went in. Admittedly it was only a few and they took one hell of a gamble.
At least you got that the last sentence was mine not the FTsâŚalthough I suppose they largely share my analysis.
Watch this. The bail out in the UK (that ended up in the pockets of the super-rich) was the equivalent of paying every household a cheque for ÂŁ24000. FFS! Damn right a few came out better than they went in.
I watched that too. Must have shook my head solidly for an hour!
The Funzie hermitage + bordello + casino + organic farm becomes increasingly more attractive