I think you’re analysing way beyond the cognitive function of any sort of Trump supporter
Actually, one should probably do away with the word extraordinary simply to keep all the language within the frame of reference their tiny little minds can cope with.
Sensible Person: why are those like yourself who believe Donald Trump is a good and honest patriot and is the best option for President of the USA not dissuaded by all the evidence to the contrary?
Trump Supporter: Because, all the evidence to the contrary is not entirely dissuasive.
Don’t know how much I would read into polls right now, the old “ a year is a lifetime in politics” and all that. Still would like to see Biden step aside as candidate though, not because he hasn’t been effective. There were some good things done, despite what Trumpists and the right wing media try to portray (especially considering his lame duck half term). He’s just too damn old.
Lots will happen over that year and numbers will go up and down. Right now people can go down the media/conspiracy rabbit hole and really get the idea that the world is coming to an end . . . by socialism
Trump supporters are hyper engaged right now, seeing the legal attacks the dear leader is facing.
An averaging of polls has the two in a dead heat, the poll quoted has them 11 points apart in one state. The methodology has been called into question, too many respondents that didn’t vote in 2020 were polled. Who the fuck cares what they think, they likely won’t vote next year either. The state of polling is quite poor and increasingly partisan and unreliable ( another discussion).
The new Republican Speaker of the House hasn’t sunk in yet. Mike Johnson came in quietly as he’s a fairly new and unexceptional Congressman. Also fairly unknown, but now he’s in the spotlight and the fact that he’s a religious theocrat fascist is quite clear. The Democrats will have a field day campaigning against him. He’s a Biblical absolutist, radically anti-abortion (I’ll get to that later), homophobic (his wife had a conversion brainwashing business whose website is suddenly unreachable), transphobic, conspiracy nutter (he authored several of Trumps legal challenges in 2020).
Despite the polls Democrats performed very well in the recent Nov. 7 elections. Democrat Governor Andy Beshear was re-elected in ruby red Kentucky, Democrats took control of both houses of the Virginia State Legislature, picked up a vacant seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (now a liberal majority, this was the court Trump launched a lot of his joke election objections), Ohio passed ballot measures legalizing marijuana and more importantly protection of abortion rights. Abortion is a guaranteed loser for Republicans, they get killed every time it’s an issue. That’s the reason they left the dirty work (overturning Roe v Wade) to the Supreme Court, and the reason the Liberty Lobby suggested the swivel eyed judges Trump appointed. Democrats really need to add another judge next time they control shit.
My prediction is when the possibility of a second Trump presidency starts to wake up Democrat voters things will really shake out. I think Joe Biden can defeat Trump, really anyone the Dems put forward will.
Candidates I would prefer -
California Governor Gavin Newsome - not a lefty but most left of the possibilities, would destroy Trump in debates (no way Trump would debate him but a Prof can dream), current favourite for the 2028 nomination
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer - policy wonk, safe stabilizing caretaker
Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzger - ticks a lot of progressive boxes, super charisma
Biden, like all incumbents, is always the presumptive nominee for his party and it’s a year out so he’s obviously running. Still would have been nice to have seen a progressive candidate mount a challenge and draw Bidens policies more left as in 2020.