They have told us what the plan is.
As cases reduce, potential hospital capacity increases.
So off we go again and get let out to start the ball rolling. You can’t contain this, you just have to stagger the effect.
So we just wait for the cases to drop daily and who knows when that is. The government can’t give you a date as they don’t know when it will be.
(They can model it, but we all know of they say a date and it’s wrong they will get criticised anyway. Can’t win?)
I wonder if there’s a different view in government that being told the bad news is what’s going to push society over the edge. For example if we’re definitely going to need rationing, but we’re not ready to implement it yet, then telling us that now would drive stockpile-buying or worse all over again.
VB
This is said with some degree of knowledge: the government classifies information on threat and risk. Public panic is a huge risk.
JTAC reports are a good example: they look at potential risk and possible outcomes. They are heavily restricted because they would just be abused if they got leaked to the media. You have to be able to speculate and discuss privately, and talk about all options without fear of judgment.
Holding stuff back has always been a sensible policy.
I’m not that convinced they are holding much back as it’s global, which means there are so many interested parties that it’s hard to control information.
Ps if you are thinking it they are probably modelling it and drawing up contingencies already. Just in case. Why tell people: might not happen.
Ingenious
did you see Prof Ferguson on the TV this morning. Effectively he said they didn’t know, because even with the most sophisticated modelling, they estimate between 7000 and about 20000, mortalities, over an unknown period of time. We haven’t reached the top of the curve.
We do need an exit strategy, and he did allude to the fact, that the strategy would involve multiple factors aligning; when cases of infection get low enough to enact contact tracing, antibody testing, availability of a vaccine etc.
They might be treating us like children, but we have shown quite well, that we (as a broader society) are totally incapable of following instructions.
I think revealing any exit strategy too early will lead to a false sense of hope, I can fully understand them hedging their bets…
I’m sure some very smart people have done some very clever modelling and planning. Unfortunately I think the twat and his monkey in chief aren’t going to follow them unless they align to their ideals. Didn’t they go a huge exercise a few years back - then promptly trimmed another chunk off the nhs budget
Bit like his opposite number in the US who has been hacking lumps off the CDC and associated depts since taking power
The Health Secretary is onto you!
Health secretary Matt Hancock is first up on Sophy Ridge on Sky News this morning, emphasising that people should not flout the coronavirus lockdown rules despite the warm weather.
“Sunbathing is against the rules that have been set out for important public health reasons,” he said, adding that it was “unbelievable frankly to see some people are not following that advice”.
Sodding lockdown! My gardener has gone AWOL, so I just cut 100 m2 uphill-sloping lawn with a 10" Flymo! 
Our next door neighbour is a gardener, he seems to be busier than ever…
I’m not sure what his logic is - he has his own key to the gate and usually comes when I’m at work, so no need for any contact.
Could he, or one of his, be sick ?
VB
He didn’t say - just sent a text saying he would review in 3 weeks, but the grass would be a foot tall by then!
I suspect that essentially all exit scenarios rely on either a drug or vaccine becoming available, on an adequate scale, and both efforts are neither guaranteed or on a predictable timeline.
I think testing is being somewhat overplayed, to give some comfort, when it’s role is somewhat secondary to therapies (including vaccines in this) in routes out of this mess.
Spencer Davis.
OK where was I? 
When I left school I had various jobs: running a record dept at John Menzies in Kensington, worked in a pub in Tulse Hill but also played blues guitar. I was in a few not major but quite well known London Blues Bands (Shakey Vick, Dynaflow Blues, Nighthawks etc). I was often used as a stand-in for hastily arranged gigs.
Now to this day I have never been certain whether this was all a load of bollocks, but I don’t think so. . . . I get a phone call from a guy (I think called ‘Dave’) who had been asked by Spencer Davis to put a new band together for him. He had packed it in when Steve Winwood left and I think was in the USA. He had heard of me and thought I could fit the bill providing I grew long hair!
We had regular meets and a few rehearsals above a pub on Brixton Hill. Spencer never materialised but a couple of the orginals did - I think the drummer and the organist who replaed Winwood. It went on for about 3 months but nothing ever came of it. At the end of the year I packed my bags to leave London for a place at Manchester University.
And that’s the story 
Nice to see Abu Dhabi charging a few million for Edexcel while the NEC in Brum is free.
Pretty much where we are at the moment and it’s only going to get worse. Already difficult dealing with councils but if the government have given them funds why aren’t they passing them on?
The Independent: Coronavirus: Britain faces a care crisis that could overwhelm the NHS.
Exciting news! This morning we manage to snap a pic of one of the Bunnies! No sign of herd of Deer though.
The Half Moon?
Went to a few gigs there
