Seems to fall into the trap making comparisons without understanding that the world’s health systems are geared around known threats and demand, generally operating at 95-105% capacity. This will blow up massively.
Yes, but for me, it’s all just panic over what might be. Health capacity only comes into the equation if worst case scenarios actually happen. It’s risk management.
From the figures so far available, I just can’t bring myself to get excited by it.
I’m still waiting for seasonal weighted figures.
You will be waiting a while then. In order to seasonally weight (I presume you mean allow for a quarterly cycle) you’ll need a decent amount of data. Given the outbreak is, at best, six months old, you have two quarters of data, that is half a cycle. You might need several years of data to reliably infer the seasonal pattern in a single country, should one exist. Of course, you might attempt to use a panel organised at the country level, but that is unlikely to be satisfactory as it assumes all countries load onto the seasonal factor (should it exist) equally.
Also, why would you expect a seasonal pattern in this kind of viral outbreak?
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I like balance. If the numbers change due to various influences, then a more accurate median is established.
if weather/climate has an influence on one more than the other, a more accurate picture builds.
Just heard a woman on the radio who thinks she has the CV problem sussed. She’s rubbing tea tree oil on the soles of her feet. She rubs it on her feet “because it’s absorbed into the body more quicker” (sic) 
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Is she related to Peter Belt
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Natural selection is just too slow a corrector sometimes.
VB
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Arn’t peoples Immune systems are weaker in cold weather and more people will also have flu ? That would impact the severity rate of CV in the winter?
This, plus behavioural factors, like crowding together in confined spaces (e.g. using public transport instead of walking), and eating a less healthy diet (less salad, fruit &c).
Do the confined spaces/crowding and bad diet things off-set each other?
If they do, you should be ok 
Oh yeah - here we go - been on a diet for a bit, and now he’s cocky as fuck! Fucker! 
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Don’t worry. He will come down to earth in a week or so when the posh Passat breaks again and the laughter starts…
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Harsh-but-amusing! 
No. Very cold weather is poor for viral transmission. Relatively warm and damp conditions are optimal.
Did I mention weight? You can have a bad diet and still be slim. Look at @rmsshipbroker - all he eats is pork pies… 
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And PDK transmission by the sound of it…
Currently training for the London Marathon. Supposed to be doing an 18 mile training run tomorrow; think I’ll have a nice lie in and a full English instead.
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The median will be the median irrespective of seasonal variation. There is nothing particularly interesting about the median in models of dynamic transmission. It simply represents the central point in the support of the distribution of the data of interest. The weather/climate currently does not appear to impact on transmission as it is spreading in winter climates in the Far East and Europe and also in warmer climates. Measuring the effective rate of transmission would seem far more important than worrying about the possibility of possible dynamic seasonal effects which are not addressable without long multi-year time series. But, hey-ho, what would I know about proper time series models anyway…
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You were the one disputing a seasonal pattern which was a surprise to me. In winter:
- More people travel together
- Poorer diet (except Jim)
- Cold weather is poor for viral transmission
- Immune systems are generally weaker
Won’t these factors (and others)impact the rate of transmission and severity?
Edit Just read your last post - You are not disputing seasonal variations just saying it’s not the key issue ATM
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