Potentially. However, to identify any pattern accurately we would need a series of observations on infections rates in each quarter (for each country/region). Imagine you are interested in a simple model that says this periods infections, X(t) are a linear function of last periods infections, X(t-1). This might be modelled using an autoregressive scheme as:
X(t)=w+aX(t-1)+u(t)
Here w measures the rate of autonomous infection and u(t) is an idiosyncratic error. To address seasonality you need to decide what you mean by seasonality. For instance this scheme could be used to capture variation in the autonomous rate:
X(t)=w0 + w1Q1t + w2Q2t+w3Q3t+a*X(t-1)+u(t)
Now you need to estimate three more parameters for the seasonal dummies to infer the parameter of interest ‘a’. What if the rate of infection exhibits a seasonal pattern, then you need to interact the seasonal dummies with the autoregressive dynamics. All the other issues are dealt with using control variables (Diet, Weather, Environment, etc) but now you need a huge and lengthy dataset.
Ergo, the data ain’t there and won’t be for some years. You can get a handle on the rate of transmission pretty readily. I’ve seen various estimates from 2.2 - 4.7 secondary infections per primary. The range of estimates simply reflects the difficulty of near-real time inference with poor data (who thinks Iran and China are providing accurate data. There have been charges laid in Korea for suppressing reporting of infections).
Yep. That is the approach we would teach to an undergraduate class. I used to deliver a suite of lectures on this kind stuff to students from non-economic backgrounds (epidemiologists, engineers, meteorologists, statisticians, biometricians etc).
You obviously haven’t been paying attention to what Donny has been saying 1) It’s a hoax. 2) The hot weather will wipe it out. 3) It will disappear like a miracle. Sorted.
No one knows more about hoax epidemics than Donny
"In temperate regions, influenza is a seasonal disease occurring typically in winter months: it affects the northern hemisphere from November to April and the southern hemisphere from April to September. "
So I started looking at a few reliable sources -
In seasonal climates it correlates to cold dry periods, explained by the virus’s dormant stage remaining viable for longer in those conditions.
In tropical climates the disease’s season correlates to monsoon periods! Not found a properly researched explanation for that apparent contradiction!
These factors are overlain by a mix of natural agencies (e.g. both spikes correspond to times when there is less UV light which would kill the virus directly, immune system depletion, etc), and human behaviour (tendency to occupy confined spaces, tendency to travel, etc). In all there are a number of independent and interdependant factors at play.
FoL#2 Lauren flew to Rome on a school history trip yesterday. She’s just texted to say that her trip to Pompeii and Herculaneum has been cancelled and that the Colosseum is closed.
1) It’s a hoax. 2) The hot weather will wipe it out. 3) It will disappear like a miracle. Sorted.