....more armchair politics (Part 2)

Not bad, but still not at the level where Blair was in that first GE he won. Labour need to be doing better than Blair to get a majority. Some way to go yet.

As for Reform, yep, fully expect the Tories to go chasing that vote, more drag to the far right for them. Should be enough to keep them from a majority for ten years.

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I expect the media will be going up a gear in mudslinging & alternative facts. Just what we need really, more division.

Unless you post on pfm.

Very much this.

Tory + Reform would still better Labour. The Tories simply didn’t turn out. Labour still need to up their game to get a majority.

Looks like it’s time to bribe Tice and get them to pull out of the general election

Not sure they do.
The Tories are going to implode even further and move to the right because of Reform threat.
They could be doing Labour’s job for them.
The Tories will double down on Rwanda but if no flights take off they have lost.
Seems crazy that a single policy could do this but it is a rod that they have made for their own back.

Tory plus reform will lose the Tories seats. Anyone i know who doesn’t want to vote Tory again, but can’t bring themselves to vote Labour, its getting my advice to vote Reform. They ain’t the brightest :slight_smile:

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Pretty damning indictment for the UK if the Tories basically lose for not being cunty enough.

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In any other world this Labour government wouldn’t be electable either, as they don’t appear to have a clue about anything and flip flop around like a fish out of water. Won’t stop me voting for them to keep the current mobsters out though.

That is not really a thing I am likely to do.

In my constituency the advice is vote LibDem as Labour have no chance, but Lewes used to be a LibDem seat with Norman Baker as MP. Con have 2.5K majority.
I think a lot of people will tactically vote NOT TORY.

Ah yes, for your seat, for Lab read Lib Dem. The advice would only be for those who dont wantto vote Tory but definitely won’t vote Lib Dem.

Reform are scaring the shit out of the Tories, especially in the red wall seats.

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A Conservative/Reform coalition is even more scary

The threat from Reform is being massively overplayed. There won’t be a coaliation either.

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FTFY

This. Reform will do well to retain the majority of their deposits in a GE.

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I expect tice to be offered a peerage if he drops out of key Tory seats.

If you want a bellwether for how out-of-touch the PLP is, in both Wellingborough and Kingswood, they were convinced that a win would be marginal at best, a matter of a few votes - and so parachuted-in droves of extra party workers to help with an 11th hour push.

Of course the swings to Labour - especially in Wellingborough which Labour considered the more marginal - were actually close to record-breaking, despite recent adverse publicity. A few extra leaflets through doors didn’t do this; 14 years of Conservatives did this.

If nothing else, it supports a notion that right-wing extremism is not so generally popular as the media makes it appear, but also, the tiny turn-out makes it painfully clear that most potential voters are feeling extremely disenfranchised. Those who despair are likely (IMO) to be those who actually care somewhat, but feel their opinion is invalidated by the apparent populist shift to the hard right.

I get no sense that any party is interested in changing that. FWLIW, I tried to get the local group interested in a ‘leaflet drop’ to all local homes where we deliver official postal vote application forms plus a leaflet explaining why people’s votes really matter irrespective of how they choose to vote, without propagandising Labour as-such. No interest at-all.

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The key point.
Starmer has reportedly united the party (The average man is more concerned with how the country will be run and how this may benefit him) He has not won the media round. I had hoped taking lessons from Brexit there would be some targeted maneuvers online but I see little evidence of that (Led By Donkeys makes more noise) I do appreciate he has to play his cards close to his chest but what if there are no meaningful cards? What if the plan is to gain power and little more? This could all be squared away if the parties communications were less opaque. My vote is for Labor based solely on my contempt for the conservatives - I wish there were more to it.

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There are policies, but they’re not even being much shared within the PLP, never mind further afield.

I think your stance is pretty much universal among non-tories; my own is the same - I’m involved, but mainly to try to help get the other guys out…