World War 3

I thought this was well put together (10 minute video)

As always it rests on how the events of 2014 are interpreted. A CIA backed coup being the last straw for a frustrated & threatened Russia seeing NATO continually edging Eastwards. Or a glorious peoplesā€™ revolution overthrowing & driving out a leader whoā€™d won his election.

Everyone is someoneā€™s bogeyman - thatā€™s been the case since WW2. The Cold War arms race was founded off the back of lies, disinformation and bluff - even then, Russia was more brag than content, with far less in the way of nukes and viable delivery systems than the West believed. Some things never changeā€¦

Post WW2, and post the various SALTs &c, the bogeyman switched to smaller strategically significant ā€˜maverickā€™ nations. Hence all of the pointless wars - e.g. Malaya, Suez, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan (RU), Iraq, Afghanistan (US) and Ukraine. All with two things in common: they didnā€™t address the real source of problems, and they all ended-up really hurting everyone involved.

War really is collective insanity - the greatest existential threat to Russia certainly isnā€™t Ukraine, it isnā€™t NATO either - as we have no interest in territorial claims. No, the nation who is exhibiting increasing expansionist behaviour, the new imperialist, the one looking at certain Russian territories and post-Soviet nations with envious eyes, is China - one of Russiaā€™s key strategic alliesā€¦

But no, the nation that has the largest number of neo-nazis in the World decides to throw 100,000 men at imaginary nazis in a next-door neighbour, and so far has had about half that number sent back to them in body bags. In 8 months, Russia has lost nearly as many men as the US lost in 20 years of war in Vietnam.

Even now, despite all Iā€™ve read, I donā€™t understand Russiaā€™s obsession with Ukraine. Had they just left it the fuck alone 20 years ago, UA would have gone-on supplying them with food, trade with the West would have increased, and Putin and his cronies could have gone-on stealing the profits.
Instead, they had to pick the scab of Ukraine - steal bits of territory, shoot down civilian airliners, abduct, loot, rape, murderā€¦ What they stood to gain is trivial compared with what they lose by way of image, resources, sanctions, isolation and increasing NATO membership, yet they stubbornly continueā€¦

If Putin goes nuclear, itā€™ll be a game changer, unprecedented in all this proxy warfare - counter to the whole philosophy - and of all thatā€™s happened so far, itā€™s the one thing likeliest to remove him. Iā€™d never say never, in all this madness, anything is now possibleā€¦

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I had to laugh that the Russians were trumpeting the arrival of their new super drone (Iranian as it happens) only for it to be shot down within half an hour of their twitter post with photographs etc etc :joy:

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It probably only makes sense from inside the heads of your average, heavily-propagandised, middle-aged, outside-St Petersburg Russians, and the guy who needs to keep them on board. As someoneā€™s already said, in the end what may hurt him most is the sons coming home in body-bags. George Orwellā€™s coverage in 1984 of the utility of war might be worth another look.

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AFAIK the short answer is that Russia originated in Ukraine and is core to Putinā€™s aim of restoring Russia to the USSR or back to (what he thinks was) the Soviet heyday.

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Yeah, it is insanely hard to pick the bones out of all of this - there are so many tiers of lies and propaganda on all sides, and then underneath those, a group of insanely rich, old men desperately trying to feel relevant and make sure that They have all the things, and we have none, foreverā€¦

I think more specifically, the house of Rurik (Ivan the Terrible et al) were from the region of modern Ukraine originally. The Russian creation mythos struggles with this which Iā€™ve always found a bit odd because itā€™s not anything like as much of an issue for most other countries.

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The way I see it is that Ukraine has a democracy (however it was achieved) and was becoming increasingly Westernised (look at Poland to the west). Dobby doesnā€™t like the idea that that ideology was creeping in to Russia and could erode his, and the oligarchs, power. Hence his invasion.
Simple, I know, but thatā€™s the way I see it

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Has anybody given a home to Ukrainian refugees, or know someone who has?

Arranging for council to inspect us next week with a view to having some refugees round for a bit.

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I looked into it but with the kids it was decided we might not be in the best position move forwards. I completely admire and support anyone who is prepared to step up and actually do something that will / does matter.

It is a very tricky one. I quite like not having people round me house.

We do live in a 4 bed house, so we have a bit of space. And it is only for 6-12 months.

Hopefully any money they/we get covers the costs of hosting them, as we donā€™t have a lot of spare cash.

Just wanted to hear of experiences others have had with it.

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We know a family who have given a home to two Ukranian families (well, mum and child x 2). Itā€™s been fairly plain sailing. The money they are being paid didnā€™t initially cover everything, but the two mums now have part time jobs and they were also helped a lot by the locals (they live in a small village) as well.

When asked, they would say it is a very enriching experience.

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The money side of it does worry us. We donā€™t have a lot spare.

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Signed up for it as I have 2x spare rooms. Have had 3x survey requests from the council asking if I was still interested so far and not heard anything for months now. Have given up on it now and wonā€™t reply to the next one.

Think that as it is mainly single women or women with children they are avoiding using single blokes like the plague.

I can understand that bit.

Will see how far it gets. If it looks like costing us a fair bit of money then we will bin it.

I have two friends who have. One has two women, the other one.

Thereā€™s been no real cost involved - they have some support, and can work (and are willing to do so). The burden on the hosts has been negligible financially, although there has in both cases been admin, ferrying about and stuff, while they settle in.

Most important has been the emotional support - there is a real possibility that refugees will be traumatised, having experienced some nasty shit and the loss of friends and family.

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I have befriended a group of Ukrainians (who have been homed with other people). All of them are now working which means that their ā€˜costā€™ is reduced but do bear in mind there will be extras over winter from heating/hot water etc. All three of them cook like theyā€™re feeding an army and- based on these three and anecdotes from them about other Ukrainians they know- they prefer to cook rather than join in your household rota. In the case of one of them, her host family simply gives her money and she feeds all of them because sheā€™s the vastly better cook.

They have cost me about a million pounds in G&Ts and Aperol Spritz but that might be specific to these ones.

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A mate of mine became leader of the district council here last year and theyā€™ve been very busy with this. Last time we spoke he said that from the councilā€™s point of view it was going much as expected/predicted. IIRC they had planned on the basis that up to a quarter of the placements would ā€˜failā€™ before the six months were up. I think things have gone a bit better than that but I donā€™t know how many extensions beyond six months look like happening.