Time for a bit of perspective. This is the landscape today, there’s no landslide, the political geography hasn’t changed that much, despite what the rightwing press would have us believe. At Reform’s usual rate of losing 1 in 10 of their councillors in 12 months, this will change soon…
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Pre-senile playing-with-toy-trains club is top floor of the village hall. We host quite a few Confused-of-Pinchbecks who come to vote without checking if our ward is electing - we weren’t, and actually only one walk-in yesterday whose husband told her it was polling day. She’s a gammon, he ain’t, but I imagine that is partly down to the fact he’s now dead… 
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Quite a few Reform and Green paper candidates unexpectedly won
https://www.thecanary.co/skwawkbox/2026/05/09/reform-loses-first-councillor/
Happy little accidents?
Not sure about happy.
Oh I had a little bet with friends on how soon one would be suspended. I had 3-5 days so lost that one.
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Had a friend in that boat a few years back. He wasn’t hugely attached to a party (I feel that is often less significant at local council levels vs parliament), but a friend who was a Lib Dem asked him to stand in their ward because otherwise the Labour candidate would get in unopposed, and Simon ended up winning, which rather caught him by surprise. I suspect he did a rather good job, he was pretty competent, and quite crucially, not a dick. Think he only did one term though, he and his wife did a lot of foster care, and he was getting stretched too thin.
They were all strong and stable.
Asked for a comparison MAGA, Reform, AfD in Chat GPT, interesting outcome:
(Aware that Chat GPT is not always accurate)
| Dimension | MAGA / Trump Movement (US) | Reform UK (UK) | AfD – Alternative für Deutschland (Germany) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical age profile | Skews older; strong among 50+ and retirees | Strong among older voters and pensioners | Strong among middle-aged and older voters, though increasingly attracting younger men too |
| Education profile | Stronger among non-college voters | Stronger among non-graduates and lower formal qualifications | Stronger among voters without university degrees |
| Geographic base | Rural areas, small towns, deindustrialized regions | Post-industrial towns, coastal towns, “left behind” areas | Particularly strong in eastern Germany and economically weaker regions |
| Economic background | Mix of working class and lower-middle/middle class | More concentrated in economically insecure communities | Strong support in regions with lower wages and weaker economic growth |
| Urban vs rural | Weakest in major liberal cities | Weakest in London and major university cities | Weakest in Berlin/Hamburg city centers; stronger in smaller towns/rural areas |
| Main political themes | Immigration, nationalism, anti-elite politics, culture wars | Immigration, anti-establishment politics, sovereignty | Immigration, nationalism, anti-EU sentiment, anti-establishment politics |
| View of elites | Strong distrust of media, universities, federal institutions | Distrust of Westminster establishment | Distrust of Berlin political/media establishment |
| Relationship to globalization | Skeptical of free trade and outsourcing | Skeptical of globalization and supranational influence | Skeptical of EU integration and globalization |
| National identity emphasis | “America First” nationalism | British sovereignty and identity | German national identity and sovereignty |
| Immigration stance | Wants stricter immigration and border controls | Strongly favors reducing immigration | Strongly anti-immigration, especially asylum migration |
| Populist style | Highly personality-driven around Donald Trump | Personality influence from Nigel Farage but less centralized | Less centered on one figure; more party-institutional |
| Support among graduates | Weaker among university graduates overall | Weaker among graduates | Weaker among graduates, especially in western urban Germany |
| Youth support | Limited but growing among some young men | Generally weaker among young voters | More youth support than Reform UK, especially online |
| Core emotional appeal | Cultural displacement, anti-elite anger, nationalism | Feeling ignored by establishment politics | Fear of decline, migration concerns, distrust of mainstream parties |
| Relationship with mainstream right | Effectively controls the Republican Party | Competes with Conservatives from outside | Competes with CDU/CSU from outside |
| Political system position | Dominant faction within a major party | Smaller insurgent party | Large opposition/populist party |
| Regions of strongest support | Appalachia, Deep South, Midwest | Northern England, coastal England, post-industrial areas | Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg, eastern Germany |
| Social conservatism | Strong, often tied to religion | Moderate to strong | Strong on cultural/national issues, less religion-centered |
| Religious component | Strong evangelical Christian influence | Much weaker religious element | Religion not central; identity/culture more important |
| Attitude toward media | “Mainstream media” highly distrusted | Similar anti-media sentiment | Similar anti-media sentiment (“Lügenpresse” narrative among some supporters) |
| Typical voter sentiment | “The country is being taken away from ordinary people” | “The establishment ignores ordinary Britons” | “Mainstream parties ignore ordinary Germans” |
Broad pattern across all three
All three movements tend to perform better among voters who are:
- older
- less university-educated
- more culturally conservative
- distrustful of political/media elites
- located outside major prosperous metropolitan centers
- skeptical of globalization and immigration
But there are important differences:
- MAGA is deeply tied to US racial and religious politics.
- Reform UK is more Brexit/sovereignty focused.
- AfD has a stronger east-west regional divide and stronger anti-EU positioning.
Could you elaborate?
As usual with these things, no discussion of the overwhelming influence of propaganda, despite centre- to far-right news media relentlessly promoting the populist agenda - usually to indirectly promote the interests of their wealthy owners.
There may not always be an agenda, but corrupt and incompetent political opportunists unceasingly receive the ‘oxygen of publicity’, while events like the recent UK local council elections are significantly misrepresented - i.e. only a few regions even voted, the consequences are trivial, and it is very much not the ‘landslide’ epochal event that (e.g.) the BBC is representing it as.
Focus is always kept on oversimplified dog-whistle topics, like immigration (almost exclusively), and no attempt is ever made to review the topics rationally and objectively, nor to examine the failures and transgressions of the populist right once it is in power.
Because people are so wholly immersed in their smartphone cyberbubbles, the political agenda is almost exclusively controlled by whoever can afford to control the ‘echo-chamber’ with their propaganda… Democracy - such as it’s ever been - is dying, fast.
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Yep; this. Spoke with a friend who gets all his news from Tok Tik…
I may have given them some advice. They’d lacked awareness and understanding of a recent major global development…
Only so much we can learn from 30 seconds of video!
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Yes there will be people genuinely not understanding why Farage isn’t standing outside No 10 this morning. Or know Reform still only have 13% or so of council seats across the UK.
So glad I am out of my place of work soon, before it’s over run with them.
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I know a couple that are members of Reform ltd.
They always slag off Margaret Thatcher.
They were however surprisingly quiet about local elections the other day…
This is where dumb lives.
Billionairs are worse, own these things anyway and back the frogman. .
Here we go again, Labour MP’s scrambling for the self destruct button, tossers.
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I wonder if the seeds for this were planted in the mid-nineties.
Perhaps fair to say that it drifted away from it’s founding principles…
That might explain the loss of the red wall seats all those years back.
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If that was a reset why did i just hear blah blah blah blah blah?
Streeting or Raynor, place your bets. Can’t see either putting the economy on a decent footing… and it’s all about the economy.
I’m hoping on a coalition at the next GE as opposed to a Reform/Tory government, a hope likely dashed.
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